The Coming Wave
by Mustafa Suleyman · 2023
A DeepMind and Inflection AI co-founder's case that AI and synthetic biology are about to break the nation-state's grip on power, whether we're ready or not.
Worth reading? Suleyman isn't a doomer or a hype man, he built the technology (DeepMind, Inflection) and is warning you about its distribution problem: unlike nuclear weapons, AI and synthetic bio are cheap, fast-diffusing, and nearly impossible to contain once released. His 'containment' thesis, that the coming decade is a fight to keep this wave from concentrating power in too few hands or scattering it into too many, is the most useful framing in the AI-policy genre. Read it if you want the geopolitical stakes explained by someone who was in the room. Skip it if you're after tactics, not stakes.
| Full Title | The Coming Wave: AI, Power, and Our Future |
|---|---|
| Author | Mustafa Suleyman |
| Published | 2023 |
| Category | Business & Money |
| Favorite quote | “Adapted technologies are contained technologies. The most urgent task is not to ride or vainly stop the wave but to sculpt it.” |
The Verdict
Suleyman built DeepMind, then Inflection, then went to run Microsoft’s AI division, so when he says the containment problem is harder than anyone in power admits, it’s worth listening. The Coming Wave isn’t a productivity book, it’s an argument about who gets to hold power in the next decade, and why the old playbooks (nuclear-style secrecy, slow regulation) won’t work this time. Pair it with Co-Intelligence if you want both the stakes and the day-to-day tactics.
readers who want the policy and power-structure argument for AI, not just the productivity angle
you want optimism, or a how-to-use-AI-today guide (that's Co-Intelligence)
Book Summary
Suleyman's core claim: AI and synthetic biology share a pattern with every general-purpose technology before them, they proliferate fast, get cheaper by the month, and become nearly impossible to un-invent. Unlike nuclear weapons, which stayed contained through enormous cost and secrecy, these new 'omni-use' technologies will be in the hands of small labs, startups, and even individuals within years, not decades.
His answer isn't to stop the technology (he thinks that's impossible) but to build 'containment': technical, legal, and cultural guardrails fast enough to keep pace with diffusion. He's explicit that most current AI safety talk underestimates how hard this actually is, and that governments, companies, and citizens all have to move faster than they're used to.
Top 7 Lessons from The Coming Wave
- AI and synthetic biology are 'omni-use' technologies that proliferate faster than governments can regulate.
- Containment, not prohibition, is the realistic goal for a wave you can't stop.
- Cost curves for powerful technology keep collapsing, what took a national lab now fits on a laptop.
- Nation-states risk losing their traditional monopoly on transformative power.
- The safety conversation underestimates how fast diffusion actually happens.
- Waiting for perfect regulation guarantees you regulate too late.
- Openness (open-source models) and containment are in direct tension, and neither side is fully right.
Top 5 Quotes from The Coming Wave
"Adapted technologies are contained technologies. The most urgent task is not to ride or vainly stop the wave but to sculpt it."
Mustafa Suleyman, The Coming Wave
"The coming wave is defined by two core technologies: artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology."
Mustafa Suleyman, The Coming Wave
"Invention is a cumulative, compounding process. It feeds on itself."
Mustafa Suleyman, The Coming Wave
"The only coherent approach to technology is to see both sides at the same time."
Mustafa Suleyman, The Coming Wave
"As soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore. AI is, as those of us building it like to joke, what computers can't do. Once they can, it's just software."
Mustafa Suleyman, The Coming Wave
Frequently Asked Questions
Is The Coming Wave worth reading?
Yes, for the clearest insider argument on why AI's power-diffusion problem is different from every past technology scare. It's sobering, not sensational.
What is the main idea of The Coming Wave?
AI and synthetic biology are 'omni-use' technologies that will diffuse faster than any government can regulate, and containment (not prohibition) is the only realistic response.
Who wrote The Coming Wave?
Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI, now CEO of Microsoft AI, with journalist Michael Bhaskar.
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